Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to spread heavy rain and gusty winds across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday before emerging over the Bay of Campeche.
Franklin will then have a second chapter as it takes aim at eastern Mexico's Gulf Coast region late this week, possibly as a hurricane.
The center of Tropical Storm Franklin is located about 120 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the west-northwest about 10 to 15 mph.
Satellite imagery and weather observations indicate that bands of heavy rain with gusty winds are affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. Campeche, Mexico, clocked a wind gust of 46 mph with an outer band of rain that swept through late Monday.
A hurricane watch has been issued by the government of Mexico for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Punta Allen. This does not include Cancún or Cozumel. This means hurricane conditions are possible in these areas.
Tropical storm warnings extend over most of the rest of the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancún and Cozumel, and as far south as Belize City. A tropical storm warning means that winds in excess of 40 mph are expected and that preparations for the storm should be rushed to completion.
Strong winds from Franklin may cause tree damage and power outages in the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding.
In addition to the heavy rain, waves in excess of 10 feet may lash the eastern Yucatan coast, including Cozumel and Cancun, into Tuesday.
A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible with the arrival of Franklin near and north of the center, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Franklin will then move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) by late Tuesday where it's expected to restrengthen before making a final landfall in eastern Mexico on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Franklin to become a hurricane prior to this second landfall.
Flash flooding and mudslides are likely to be major concerns as Franklin grinds across this region's mountainous terrain.
A year ago, eastern Mexico was ravaged by flooding and mudslides from Tropical Storm Earl which claimed the lives of 81 people.
Franklin No Direct Threat to the U.S.
High pressure in the southern U.S. should remain strong enough that Franklin will not directly affect the U.S.
However, high surf, rip currents, and possibly some minor coastal flooding should affect southern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday.
We've now entered the portion of hurricane season when every potential system must be watched closely for development and potential impacts to land. About 80 percent of all hurricanes in the Atlantic have developed from August through October.
It has been almost five years since a hurricane made landfall in the United States during August. The last one was Hurricane Isaac, which struck Louisiana on Aug. 28, 2012.